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+# Timeline: AI Agent Evolution
+
+#timeline
+
+Chronological reconstruction of how AI agents evolved, combining [[konstantin]]'s tooling/agent timeline with [[theo-browne]]'s model eras. Dates are as stated by the speakers (approximate; some are framing rather than precise release dates). Status: **tentative** where noted.
+
+## Agent architecture & tooling (Konstantin)
+
+| Period          | Milestone                                                                                                                     | Significance                                                            |
+| --------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| Early 2023      | LLM / ChatGPT (pre-chat): ask → answer                                                                                         | No memory, no tools, single-turn                                       |
+| Summer 2023     | **ReAct agents** — LLM can answer *or* call a function                                                                         | First "agent loop"; tools give the LLM feedback. See [[agentic-loops]] |
+| 2023–2024       | Call chains, roles, first agent SDKs, vector DBs, **RAG**, JSON outputs                                                        | Agents use external knowledge                                          |
+| 2024            | Chains → **graphs** (LangGraph); multi-agent (planner/critic); AutoGen, CrewAI; heavy **scaffolding**                         | Peak technical complexity                                              |
+| Late 2025       | **Simplification** — a simple agent with ~10 file ops solves hard tasks; era of **universal agents = [[harness\|harnesses]]**  | Complexity drops, capability rises                                     |
+| 2026 (now)      | Harnesses wrapped in outer loops (**Ralph loop**), run for days; **AI factory** (no human-in-the-loop)                        | human-in-the-middle → man-on-the-middle → no human                     |
+| 2027 (forecast) | Dominance of **[[skills-as-memory\|skills]] + [[agentic-loops\|agent loops]]**                                                 | —                                                                      |
+
+**Tooling generations** (see [[evolution-of-agent-tooling]]): Tools (2022–2024) → MCP (late 2024–2025) → Skills (2025→).
+
+**Human-role ladder** (see [[context-as-scarce-resource]]): prompt-engineer → context-engineer → harness-builder → loop-engineer.
+
+## Model capability eras (Theo Browne)
+
+Speaker's framing; model-name→ID mapping is **unverified/tentative** (see [[theo-browne]]).
+
+| Era | Representative model (speaker's term) | Unlocked |
+|---|---|---|
+| **Tool-call era** | "Sonnet 3.5" | First reliable tool calls inside a real codebase |
+| **Long-running-task era** | "Opus 4.5" | Multi-hour tasks; self-run/test (his "AI psychosis" began Nov–Dec 2024) |
+| **Orchestration era** | "Mythos / Fable" | Understands *itself*; spawns sub-models; verifies afterward — a prompt replaces a software factory |
+
+The two timelines rhyme: Konstantin's "universal harness → loops → AI factory" is the *system* view of Theo's "orchestration era" *model* capability. See [[think-wider-not-bigger]].
+
+## Related Pages
+
+- Concepts: [[harness]], [[skills-as-memory]], [[evolution-of-agent-tooling]], [[agentic-loops]], [[context-as-scarce-resource]], [[think-wider-not-bigger]]
+- Sources: [[2026-07-14-skills-based-on-git]], [[2026-07-14-everything-we-knew-about-software-has-changed]]
+
+## Uncertainty
+
+- Konstantin: "everything changes every 6 months — nothing is fundamental yet." Treat 2027 as a forecast.
+- Theo's model-era names are rhetorical; do not treat as official release labels.